2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Experts Predict Near-Normal Season with Potential for High-Impact Storms
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The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins today, June 1, and while it's too early to predict any specific storms, experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are forecasting a near-normal season. The agency predicts 12 to 17 named storms, with 6 to 10 becoming hurricanes, and 3 to 6 becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
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This forecast is based on the current state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is in a neutral phase. When ENSO is in an El Niño phase, it typically suppresses hurricane development in the Atlantic. However, when ENSO is in a La Niña phase, it can enhance hurricane activity. Neutral ENSO conditions are expected to persist through the peak of the hurricane season, which is August and September.
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While NOAA's forecast calls for a near-normal season, the agency noted that it is still too early to say for certain how active the season will be. There are still several factors that could influence the number and intensity of storms, such as tropical wave activity and the formation of tropical cyclones in the western Atlantic.
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Residents along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts should be prepared for the possibility of tropical storms and hurricanes. It is important to have an emergency plan in place and to stay informed about the latest weather forecasts.
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